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Congress·In Committee·S. 4017

Sen. Merkley Introduces the End Prediction Market Corruption Act to Ban Officials From Betting on Events

End Prediction Market Corruption Act

Legislative Progress

Senate
House
President
Law

Key Points

  • The bill would completely ban the President, Vice President, and all members of Congress from buying, selling, or trading event contracts — essentially bets on whether certain events will happen, like election outcomes or policy decisions.

    From policy text

    No covered individual may purchase, sell, or otherwise exchange an event contract.
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  • Senior executive branch officials would face a narrower ban: they couldn't trade event contracts related to matters they're personally and substantially involved in through their government work, such as decisions, approvals, investigations, or recommendations.

    From policy text

    No senior executive branch official may purchase, sell, or otherwise exchange an event contract the subject of which is a matter in which the senior executive branch official participates personally and substantially as a Government officer or employee
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  • Officials who break the rules could face civil penalties of at least $10,000 per violation or the full amount of profit they made from the trade, whichever is higher. The Attorney General would be authorized to bring civil lawsuits to enforce these rules.

    From policy text

    the individual shall be subject to a civil penalty of not more than the greater of-- ``(i) $10,000 for each violation; and ``(ii) the amount of profit made through the purchase, sale, or exchange of the event contract in violation of paragraph (2).
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  • The bill adds new financial disclosure requirements, forcing covered officials to report if they, their spouses, or dependent children trade event contracts. Reports must be filed within 45 days of any transaction.

    From policy text

    Not later than 30 days after receiving notification of any event contract transaction required to be reported under section 13104(a)(9), but in no case later than 45 days after such event contract transaction, a covered reporting individual shall file a report of the transaction
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  • The CFTC would be required to create new rules to prevent insider trading in prediction markets, stopping people from using secret government information to profit from event contracts. Foreign trading platforms would also have to submit quarterly reports on any violations.

    From policy text

    The Commission shall issue a rule to restrict the inappropriate use of material nonpublic information, in breach of an express or implied duty not to use or disclose such material nonpublic information, as a means of making a profit through the purchase, sale, or other exchange of an event contract
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Impact Analysis

Personal Impact

Scores: 1 = low, 5 = highSentiment: -5 to +5 (net benefit)

Milestones

2 milestones2 actions
Mar 5, 2026Senate

Read twice and referred to the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry.

Mar 5, 2026

Introduced in Senate

Source Information

Document Type

Congressional Bill

Official Title

End Prediction Market Corruption Act

Bill NumberS 4017
Congress119th Congress
ChamberSenate
Latest ActionRead twice and referred to the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry.

Sponsor

Cosponsors

(4)
D: 4

Analysis generated by AI. Always verify with official sources.